Monday, February 20, 2017

Interest Rates Are Going Much Higher

When interest rates start going up again permanently, when the bull market does come to an end in government bonds, interest rates are going to go very, very high.

In 1981, short-term in America were over 20 percent. Long-term bonds were yielding over 15 percent.

When interest rates go higher the junk bonds are going to get destroyed both by interest rates and by credit defaults. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK))

Friday, February 17, 2017

Is the Stock Market Right About Trump?

Well, yes and no. Mr. Trump has said he is going to do some wonderful things, like cutting taxes which is always great for any society, any country. He said he is going to rebuild the infrastructure which America desperately needs and it's good for America.

He said he is going to bring home the 3 trillion dollars which American companies have overseas. All of the things are wonderful things. If he can do it, it's going to be great!

But, Mr. Trump has also said he is going to have trade wars with China, Mexico, Japan, Korea and a few other countries that he has named. He said that on his first day in Office he would impose 45 percent tariffs against China. He has been there for a few weeks and he has not done it yet, but he still has it in his head, I am sure. Maybe he is just another politician like all the rest of them that says one thing but does not mean it at all. He has at least three people at high levels on his team that are very, very keen to have trade wars with China and if he does that, it's all over! 

History is very clear. Trade wars always lead to problems, into disaster and even to real wars. If he is not going to have trade wars with various countries, then chances are that for a while happy days are here. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Junk Bonds: They Will Get Destroyed When Interest Rates Go Higher

I am not shorting U.S. Government Bonds but I am still short U.S. junk bonds still. We are certainly in the process of making a top, but when the top comes, I do not know. 

 When interest rates go higher permanently, the junk bonds are going to get destroyed by interest rates and by credit defaults because many of them are junk! (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF)(HYG))

Wednesday, February 15, 2017

The U.S. Dollar Will Just Go Higher And Higher

I have been around long enough to know that everything is possible, no matter how weird it may sound. In fact, the weirdest it sounds probably the more likely it is going to happen. I doubt that there will be a Plaza accord this time around. It is more likely that the U.S. Dollar will just go higher and higher on its own. It will get too high, it will cause serious credit problems for a lot of people that has borrowed a lot of U.S. Dollars and it will make a lot of American companies less competitive.

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

The Fundamentals Are Getting Worse Everywhere

The fundamentals are getting worse everywhere except in Russia. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX))